Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 50.81%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 26.35% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.