Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 48.88%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 28.08% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.97%) and 0-2 (7.18%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 2-1 (6.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 28.08% | 23.05% | 48.88% |
| Both teams to score 61.11% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.27% | 39.73% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.91% | 62.09% |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.18% | 26.82% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.89% | 62.11% |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.5% | 16.5% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.76% | 46.24% |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 6.91% 1-0 @ 5.82% 2-0 @ 3.83% 3-1 @ 3.03% 3-2 @ 2.73% 3-0 @ 1.68% 4-1 @ 1% Other @ 3.08% Total : 28.08% | 1-1 @ 10.49% 2-2 @ 6.22% 0-0 @ 4.43% 3-3 @ 1.64% Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.04% | 1-2 @ 9.45% 0-1 @ 7.97% 0-2 @ 7.18% 1-3 @ 5.68% 0-3 @ 4.31% 2-3 @ 3.74% 1-4 @ 2.56% 0-4 @ 1.94% 2-4 @ 1.68% 1-5 @ 0.92% Other @ 3.44% Total : 48.88% |