Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ilves win with a probability of 47.2%. A win for KTP had a probability of 29.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ilves win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.64%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest KTP win was 2-1 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ilves would win this match.