Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honka win with a probability of 49.16%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 26.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honka win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-2 (8.53%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 1-0 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Honka in this match.