Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oulu win with a probability of 42.83%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 31.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oulu win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.94%) and 0-2 (7.32%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oulu would win this match.