Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honka win with a probability of 42.24%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 31.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honka win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Honka would win this match.