Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honka win with a probability of 57.43%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Vaasan Palloseura had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honka win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for a Vaasan Palloseura win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Honka in this match.