Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 57.08%. A win for KTP had a probability of 21.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.09%) and 1-0 (7.85%). The likeliest KTP win was 1-2 (5.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.