Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Vaasan Palloseura had a probability of 31.52% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.77%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Vaasan Palloseura win was 1-2 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.