Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almere City win with a probability of 42.48%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 35.71% and a draw had a probability of 21.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Almere City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.79%) and 3-1 (5.12%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (7.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.