Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 79.72%. A draw had a probability of 13.4% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 6.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.27%) and 1-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.35%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (2.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Chaves |
79.72% ( 1.27) | 13.36% ( -0.47) | 6.92% ( -0.8) |
Both teams to score 45.26% ( -2.51) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.68% ( -0.9) | 35.31% ( 0.9) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.66% ( -1.01) | 57.34% ( 1.01) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.04% ( 0.06) | 6.96% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
74.49% ( 0.17) | 25.5% ( -0.17) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.64% ( -2.73) | 51.35% ( 2.73) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.42% ( -1.9) | 85.58% ( 1.89) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Chaves |
2-0 @ 12.69% ( 0.65) 3-0 @ 11.27% ( 0.61) 1-0 @ 9.52% ( 0.46) 2-1 @ 8.46% ( -0.23) 3-1 @ 7.51% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.43) 4-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.1) 5-0 @ 4% ( 0.24) 5-1 @ 2.67% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.27) 6-0 @ 1.78% ( 0.11) 4-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.17) 6-1 @ 1.19% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.92% Total : 79.71% | 1-1 @ 6.35% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 3.57% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 2.82% ( -0.31) Other @ 0.62% Total : 13.36% | 0-1 @ 2.38% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.24) Other @ 2.42% Total : 6.92% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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