Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
Result | ||
Maritimo | Draw | Boavista |
41.17% ( -0.04) | 26.84% ( 0.01) | 31.99% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 50.66% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.64% ( -0.04) | 54.36% ( 0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.26% ( -0.03) | 75.74% ( 0.03) |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.99% ( -0.04) | 26% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.97% ( -0.05) | 61.03% ( 0.05) |
Boavista Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.46% ( -0) | 31.54% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.06% ( -0) | 67.93% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Maritimo | Draw | Boavista |
1-0 @ 11.04% 2-1 @ 8.59% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.44% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.85% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.34% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.3% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.13% ( -0) Other @ 2.25% Total : 41.16% | 1-1 @ 12.74% 0-0 @ 8.2% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.95% ( -0) Other @ 0.94% Total : 26.84% | 0-1 @ 9.46% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.36% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.46% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.83% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.1% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.91% ( -0) Other @ 2.87% Total : 31.99% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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