Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 49.01%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 23.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.95%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (8.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match.