Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 51.85%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 21.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.66%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (8.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match.