Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 59.86%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Varbergs BoIS had a probability of 19.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.48%) and 0-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.84%), while for a Varbergs BoIS win it was 2-1 (5.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.