World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Oct 10, 2021 at 9.30pm UK

Venezuela
2 - 1
Ecuador

Machis (45+1'), Bello (64')
Rincon (45+4'), Moreno (87'), Aristeguieta (90+4'), Andres Martinez (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Valencia (37' pen.)
Mena (62'), Torres (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Venezuela and Ecuador, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 40.18%. A win for Ecuador had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Ecuador win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Venezuela would win this match.

Result
Venezuela	Draw	Ecuador
40.18%	26.85%	32.97%

Both teams to score 50.92%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.84%

54.15%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.43%

75.57%

Venezuela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.56%

26.44%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.39%

61.61%

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.23%

30.77%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.96%

67.04%

Score Analysis

Venezuela 40.17%

Ecuador 32.97%

Draw 26.85%

Venezuela	Draw	Ecuador
1-0 @ 10.82% 2-1 @ 8.49% 2-0 @ 7.2% 3-1 @ 3.76% 3-0 @ 3.19% 3-2 @ 2.22% 4-1 @ 1.25% 4-0 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.19% Total : 40.17%	1-1 @ 12.75% 0-0 @ 8.14% 2-2 @ 5% Other @ 0.96% Total : 26.85%	0-1 @ 9.59% 1-2 @ 7.52% 0-2 @ 5.65% 1-3 @ 2.95% 0-3 @ 2.22% 2-3 @ 1.96% Other @ 3.07% Total : 32.97%