World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 10, 2021 at 9.30pm UK
Venezuela2 - 1Ecuador
Machis (45+1'), Bello (64')
Rincon (45+4'), Moreno (87'), Aristeguieta (90+4'), Andres Martinez (90+5')
Rincon (45+4'), Moreno (87'), Aristeguieta (90+4'), Andres Martinez (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 40.18%. A win for Ecuador had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Ecuador win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Venezuela would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Venezuela | Draw | Ecuador |
| 40.18% | 26.85% | 32.97% |
| Both teams to score 50.92% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
