Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uzbekistan win with a probability of 74.42%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Kyrgyzstan had a probability of 8.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uzbekistan win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.64%) and 3-0 (10.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.97%), while for a Kyrgyzstan win it was 0-1 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.