World Cup Qualifying - South America Gameweek 15
Ecuador
Jun 6, 2025 12.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Brazil

Ecuador vs Brazil - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview
Predicted Lineups

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last game
Mar 26, 2025 12.00am
Chile 0 - 0 Ecuador

Brazil

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last game
Mar 26, 2025 12.00am
Argentina 4 - 1 Brazil

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Ecuador win with a probability of 49.85%. A draw has a probability of 26% and a win for Brazil has a probability of 24.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (9.62%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.29%), while for a Brazil win it is 0-1 (8.18%).

Result

Ecuador 49.85% ▼ (-0.83)
Draw 26.02% ▲ (+0.38)
Brazil 24.13% ▲ (+0.45)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.98% ▼ (-0.63)

Goals

Over 2.5 44.66% ▼ (-1.05)
Under 2.5 55.34% ▲ (+1.05)
Over 3.5 23.45% ▼ (-0.87)
Under 3.5 76.55% ▲ (+0.87)
Over 4.5 10.39% ▼ (-0.54)
Under 4.5 89.61% ▲ (+0.54)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5 77.75% ▼ (-0.80)
Under 0.5 22.24% ▲ (+0.80)
Over 1.5 44.32% ▼ (-1.21)
Under 1.5 55.68% ▲ (+1.21)

Brazil Goals

Over 0.5 61.7% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 0.5 38.29% ▲ (+0.17)
Over 1.5 24.95% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 1.5 75.05% ▲ (+0.17)

Score analysis

Ecuador 49.85%
Draw 26.02%
Brazil 24.13%
Ecuador
1-0 @ 12.8% ▲ (+0.22)
2-0 @ 9.62% ▼ (-0.07)
2-1 @ 9.24% ▼ (-0.11)
3-0 @ 4.82% ▼ (-0.16)
3-1 @ 4.63% ▼ (-0.17)
3-2 @ 2.22% ▼ (-0.10)
4-0 @ 1.81% ▼ (-0.11)
4-1 @ 1.74% ▼ (-0.11)
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 49.85%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.29% ▲ (+0.15)
0-0 @ 8.52% ▲ (+0.34)
2-2 @ 4.43% ▼ (-0.08)
Other @ 0.78%
Total : 26.02%
Brazil
0-1 @ 8.18% ▲ (+0.30)
1-2 @ 5.9% ▲ (+0.05)
0-2 @ 3.92% ▲ (+0.13)
1-3 @ 1.89% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.42% ▼ (-0.04)
0-3 @ 1.26% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 1.57%
Total : 24.13%

Head to Head

World Cup Qualifying - South America
Brazil
Sep 7, 2024 2.00am
1
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
Ecuador
  • Rodrygo 30' goal
  • Rodrygo 30' goal
  • Lucas Moura 78' yellowcard
  • Lucas Moura 78' yellowcard
World Cup Qualifying - South America
Ecuador
Jan 27, 2022 9.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT
Brazil
  • Alexander Dominguez 15' redcard
  • Enner Valencia 70' yellowcard
  • Felix Torres 75' goal
  • Moises Caicedo 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Emerson 1'
  • goal Casemiro 6'
  • redcard Emerson 20'
  • yellowcard Alisson Becker 31'
  • yellowcard Raphinha 42'
  • yellowcard Eder Militao 45'+2'
Copa America
Brazil
Jun 27, 2021 10.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT
Ecuador
  • Eder Militao 37' goal
  • goal Angel Mena 53'
  • yellowcard Pervis Estupinan 83'
World Cup Qualifying - South America
Brazil
Jun 5, 2021 1.30am
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Ecuador
  • Fred 36' yellowcard
  • Fred 37' yellowcard
  • Richarlison 65' goal
  • Eder Militao 73' yellowcard
  • Neymar 90'+4' goal
  • yellowcard Angelo Preciado 26'
  • yellowcard Angelo Preciado 27'
  • yellowcard Enner Valencia 54'
  • yellowcard Enner Valencia 55'
  • yellowcard Ayrton Preciado 69'
  • yellowcard Alexander Dominguez Carabali 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Alexander Dominguez 90'+2'
World Cup Qualifying - South America
Brazil
Sep 1, 2017 1.45am
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Arena do Gremio
Ecuador
  • Paulinho 69' goal
  • Philippe Coutinho 76' goal
International Friendlies
Brazil
Sep 10, 2014 2.00am
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
Ecuador
  • Willian 31' goal
  • yellowcard Frickson Erazo 80'

Form Data

Chile 0 - 0 Ecuador
Ecuador 2 - 1 Venezuela
Colombia 0 - 1 Ecuador
Ecuador 4 - 0 Bolivia
Uruguay 0 - 0 Ecuador
Ecuador 0 - 0 Paraguay
Argentina 4 - 1 Brazil
Brazil 2 - 1 Colombia
Brazil 1 - 1 Uruguay
Venezuela 1 - 1 Brazil
Brazil 4 - 0 Peru
Chile 1 - 2 Brazil