Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Women win with a probability of 37.85%. A win for Chelsea Women had a probability of 37.14% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.27%) and 2-0 (5.93%). The likeliest Chelsea Women win was 1-2 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City Women would win this match.