Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 76.11%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Haverfordwest County had a probability of 8.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.6%) and 1-0 (10.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.31%), while for a Haverfordwest County win it was 0-1 (2.98%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.