Welsh Premier League
May 18, 2025 at 5.10pm UK
New Bridge Meadow Stadium

Haverfordwest
3 - 1
Caernarfon

Ahmun (17', 85'), Hawkins (33')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Lloyd (90+3')
Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Haverfordwest County and Caernarfon Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Haverfordwest County

All competitions
Last Game: Haverfordwest 1-3 New Saints
Saturday, April 19 at 12.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Caernarfon 0-0 Cardiff MU (4-2 pen.)
Sunday, May 11 at 5.10pm in Welsh Premier League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haverfordwest County win with a probability of 54.34%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 22.53%.

The most likely scoreline for a Haverfordwest County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 0-1 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Haverfordwest County would win this match.

Result
Haverfordwest CountyDrawCaernarfon Town
54.34% (-0.42299999999999 -0.42)23.13% (0.056999999999999 0.06)22.53% (0.369 0.37)
Both teams to score 54.97% (0.311 0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.81% (0.177 0.18)45.2% (-0.174 -0.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.46% (0.167 0.17)67.54% (-0.166 -0.17)
Haverfordwest County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.46% (-0.085000000000008 -0.09)16.54% (0.087 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.7% (-0.156 -0.16)46.3% (0.15799999999999 0.16)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.87% (0.44 0.44)34.13% (-0.439 -0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.18% (0.469 0.47)70.82% (-0.468 -0.47)
Score Analysis
    Haverfordwest County 54.33%
    Caernarfon Town 22.53%
    Draw 23.13%
Haverfordwest CountyDrawCaernarfon Town
1-0 @ 10.15% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-1 @ 9.82% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
2-0 @ 9.14% (-0.122 -0.12)
3-1 @ 5.89% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-0 @ 5.48% (-0.09 -0.09)
3-2 @ 3.17% (0.024 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.65% (-0.019 -0.02)
4-0 @ 2.47% (-0.048 -0.05)
4-2 @ 1.43% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 0.95% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 3.18%
Total : 54.33%
1-1 @ 10.92% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 5.65% (-0.042 -0.04)
2-2 @ 5.28% (0.055000000000001 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.14% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 23.13%
0-1 @ 6.07% (0.026 0.03)
1-2 @ 5.87% (0.079 0.08)
0-2 @ 3.26% (0.053 0.05)
1-3 @ 2.1% (0.053 0.05)
2-3 @ 1.89% (0.042 0.04)
0-3 @ 1.17% (0.033 0.03)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 22.53%

Head to Head
Mar 29, 2025 2.30pm
Gameweek 8
Haverfordwest
1-1
Caernarfon
Ahmun (52')
(77'), Owen (85')
Lloyd (54' pen.)
Sears (75')
Feb 8, 2025 2.30pm
Gameweek 3
Caernarfon
1-1
Haverfordwest
Lloyd (26')
Lock (66')
Fawcett (10')
Ahmun (58'), Walters (90+2')
Oct 26, 2024 5.15pm
Gameweek 14
Haverfordwest
0-0
Caernarfon
Downey (32'), Mendes (33')
Aug 17, 2024 5.15pm
Gameweek 2
Caernarfon
1-2
Haverfordwest
Jones (75')
Gosset (25')
Ahmun (73'), Jones (90+1')
Dec 16, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 19
Caernarfon
0-1
Haverfordwest

Gosset (42'), John Williams (90+4')
Donohue (90+4')
Dyer (73')
Abbruzzese (90+4')
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
 
Regular Season
1The New SaintsNew Saints22170561263551
2Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont22155242162650
3Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest22117429111840
4Caernarfon TownCaernarfon2210483535034
5Bala TownBala Town2271142821732
6Cardiff MUCardiff MU229583229332
7Barry Town UnitedBarry228683238-630
8Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay2275103226626
9Briton Ferry2263133345-1221
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town2262142747-2020
11Newtown AFCNewtown2254132446-2219
12Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth2242161853-3514
> Welsh Premier League Full Table


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