Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haverfordwest County win with a probability of 51.7%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 22.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haverfordwest County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.02%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for a Pen-y-Bont win it was 0-1 (7.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.