Welsh Premier League | Gameweek 5

Mar 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

The Oval

Caernarfon
0 - 1
Aberystwyth

FT(HT: 0-1)

Flint (41')

Coverage of the Welsh Premier League clash between Caernarfon Town and Aberystwyth Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions

Last Game: Pontypridd 1-0 Caernarfon
Saturday, March 11 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Goals
for

Aberystwyth Town

All competitions

Last Game: Aberystwyth 0-1 Haverfordwest
Saturday, March 11 at 2.30pm in Welsh Premier League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 41.67%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 33.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.

Result
Caernarfon Town	Draw	Aberystwyth Town
41.67% ( 1.36)	25.1% ( -0.47)	33.23% ( -0.88)

Both teams to score 56.74% (

1.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.3% (

1.9)

46.7% (

-1.89)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.03% (

1.75)

68.97% (

-1.75)

Caernarfon Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.65% (

1.5)

22.35% (

-1.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.17% (

2.2)

55.83% (

-2.2)

Aberystwyth Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.07% (

0.38)

26.93% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.74% (

0.49)

62.27% (

-0.49)

Score Analysis

Caernarfon Town 41.67%

Aberystwyth Town 33.23%

Draw 25.1%

Caernarfon Town	Draw	Aberystwyth Town
1-0 @ 9.02% ( -0.32) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 6.76% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 4.43% ( 0.28) 3-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.21) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.17) 4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.12) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.31% Total : 41.67%	1-1 @ 11.83% ( -0.28) 0-0 @ 6.02% ( -0.49) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( 0.18) 3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.1%	0-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.56) 1-2 @ 7.76% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.31) 1-3 @ 3.39% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.08% Total : 33.23%