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Vitoria de Guimaraes
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 25
Apr 4, 2021 at 5.30pm UK
Estadio D Afonso Henriques
Tondela

Guimaraes
1 - 2
Tondela

Estupinan (39')
Fonseca Amaro (52'), Fernandes (80')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Gonzalez (27', 76')

Preview: Vitoria de Guimaraes vs. Tondela - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Tondela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Vitoria de Guimaraes will look to put an end to a three-game losing run on Sunday, when they welcome Tondela to the Estadio D. Afonso Henriques.

After a poor run of form of their own, Tondela have dropped to 12th spot in the Primeira Liga table, with just a four-point gap between themselves and the bottom three, while the hosts sit in sixth spot despite their recent dip.


Match preview

A general shot of Marcus Edwards celebrating with teammates for Vitoria de Guimaraes in June 2020© Reuters

Before the international break, Vitoria de Guimaraes suffered a narrow defeat away at league leaders Sporting Lisbon, as centre-back Goncalo Inacio netted the only goal of the game on the stroke of half time.

While that loss is by no means disappointing, they will be discouraged by the previous result, which saw them fall to a 4-2 defeat away at strugglers Gil Vicente.

The visitors took a two-goal lead on two separate occasions, but goals from Diogo Rochinha and Ruben Lameiras kept the match close until an 80th-minute Lucas Mineiro goal put the game out of sight.

They were again beaten comfortably before that, as Lucas Piazon, Abel Ruiz and Andraz Sporar fired Braga to a 3-0 home victory over Joao Henriques's side.

As a result of that poor run, the Guimaraes outfit have fallen well behind the Primeira Liga's top five, with the gap between themselves and fifth-placed Pacos de Ferreira now standing at nine points.

Henriques will be desperate for his side to reverse their fortunes in this game, with the international break possibly providing a clean slate for them to rebuild their season.

However, they take on a Tondela side who will be desperate for a crucial win to put some more space between themselves and the drop zone.

Pako Ayestaran's side looked set to seal a victory away at Santa Clara last time out, after Mario Gonzalez put them 1-0 ahead on the stroke of half time, and with the hosts reduced to nine men with 10 minutes to go.

However, centre-back Yohan Tavares turned the ball into his own net in the fourth minute of added time, to see his side come away with a point after so nearly taking all three.

Before that, CDT Auriverdes suffered late disappointment again, as their game at home to league leaders Sporting Lisbon remained goalless until Tiago Tomas netted the winner in the 82nd minute.

That dip in form has seen Ayestaran's men drop back into the relegation mix, currently sitting in 11th spot, but just four points above the automatic drop zone.

As a result, he will be desperate to put a crucial victory on the board on Saturday, which could see them put some more distance between themselves and the bottom three, but to do that they will need to reverse the form which has seen them drop points late on in both of their last two matches.

Vitoria de Guimaraes Primeira Liga form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L

Tondela Primeira Liga form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D



Team News

Pako Ayestaran, now in charge of Tondela, pictured in 2016© Reuters

Vitoria de Guimaraes will remain without midfielder Joseph Amoah, who is yet to feature this campaign due to a muscle injury.

Meanwhile, they could also be missing right-back Silvio and midfielder Jacob Maddox, as both players have been absent since December.

Midfielder Pepelu will also be out for this game through suspension, after he was shown his fifth yellow card of the season in the defeat to Sporting Lisbon.

However, they will welcome centre-back Abdul Mumin back to action, after he served a suspension last time out for a red card.

Attacker Ruben Lameiras will be hoping to return to the starting side, after he netted his first Victoria goal since joining from Famalicao in January.

Tondela's only notable absentee could be right-back Bebeto, who has missed four of the last five games with injury concerns, while he featured for just half an hour in that time.

The line will be led by Villarreal loanee Mario Gonzalez, who has netted seven goals in 17 league games this season.

Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Sacko, Fernandes, Mumin, Mensah; Andre, Almeida, Edwards; Rochinha, Estupinan, Lameiras

Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Almeida, Tavares, Alves, Ferreira; Pedro, Jaquite, Olabe; Murillo, Gonzalez, Khacef


SM words green background

We say: Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-1 Tondela

While Vitoria de Guimaraes have been far from their best recently, we still expect them to come good at some point, thanks to their strong mix of attacking and defensive players.

Henriques's side should have just enough to get past a Tondela side who have struggled to see out results recently, and look to be falling worryingly close to the relegation places.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 54%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 20.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.13%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.97%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (7.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Guimaraes vs Tondela

Vitoria de Guimaraes
83.3%
Draw
16.7%
Tondela
0.0%
6
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Sporting Lisbon's Pedro Goncalves celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates in January 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sporting Lisbon29252284275777
2Benfica29224365234270
3Porto29185653233059
4Braga29185661402159
5Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes29176645291657
6MoreirenseMoreirense29127103033-343
7AroucaArouca291341250391143
8FamalicaoFamalicao29811103136-535
9Casa Pia2988132941-1232
10SC FarenseFarense2987143841-331
11Rio AveRio Ave2951593137-630
12BoavistaBoavista2978143455-2129
13Estoril PraiaEstoril2985164350-729
14Gil Vicente2977153648-1228
15Estrela Amadora29610133145-1428
16PortimonensePortimonense2976163262-3027
17ChavesChaves2957172860-3222
18Vizela2949162860-3221


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