After winning their first match of the 2022 Major League Soccer regular season, the Vancouver Whitecaps now have a chance to extend their unbeaten run at BC Place Stadium to eight straight games when they host the Portland Timbers on Saturday.
Vancouver blanked Sporting Kansas City 1-0 last weekend, while the Timbers are winless in three straight fixtures, dropping a 3-1 decision versus the Los Angeles Galaxy to kick off the month of April.
Match preview
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At long last, something good happened for Vanni Sartini and his side, who were able to climb out of last place in the Western Conference a week ago.
Statistically, it may not have been the most dominant performance, but overall the Caps managed to play on the front foot more often than not, creating their share of opportunities and finally burying one of them in the 73rd minute.
It is no secret that this group look more comfortable on the artificial turf of BC Place than on the road, and so far at home this year we have seen them display a lot more poise on the back end, posting clean sheets in their only two games played in Vancouver this season.
Since becoming the head coach of this team, Sartini has constantly said that whoever performs the best in training will earn a place in the matchday lineup, and the Italian has changed his starting 11 consistently each game.
We saw a lot more intensity all over the field from this team last weekend, with their top individual players showing class and quality in attacking positions.
Saturday will be the first match in the 2022 edition of the Cascadia Cup series, which features the Caps, Portland and the Seattle Sounders fighting for territorial bragging rights.
Historically, Vancouver have had their struggles against those two Pacific Northwest sides, with their last cup victory coming in the 2016 campaign, though they did win two of their three encounters versus Portland a year ago.
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They continue to find the back of the net, but that has not been enough to reverse the fortunes of Giovanni Savarese's side, who will match their longest losing streak from a year ago (three) with a defeat this weekend.
The Timbers have scored in 13 straight games in MLS play, though they have not won a regular-season encounter on the road since defeating Real Salt Lake 3-1 last November.
Over the past two weeks, Portland have been involved in some chippy affairs with 30 fouls committed between themselves and Orlando City and a total of 31 in their encounter against the Galaxy.
While this group are no stranger to being physical, their reckless challenges and a lack of discipline have cost them dearly in the early going, collecting three red cards after six matches, equalling the Timbers' total from their previous two MLS seasons combined.
As Savarese put it following their defeat last weekend, you have to take advantage of your moments in order to be successful, and to this point of the campaign his team have failed to do that more often than not.
Defensively speaking, this group have looked a little out of sorts, conceding multiple goals in three different matches this season after allowing a mere two goals in their final five encounters of 2021, including the playoffs.
Their current record (1-3-2) may not be an indication of poor play, with Portland controlling many of their games through long stretches, although for the time being, the Timbers are missing that game-breaker who can turn the tide in their favour.
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Team News
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It was a special night for Whitecaps forward Ryan Raposo last Saturday, as the fourth-round selection in the 2020 MLS SuperDraft notched the first goal of his Major League Soccer career in front of his mom, who flew all the way from Hamilton, Ontario the night before to take in the match.
Tristan Blackmon had another splendid game last weekend, winning 11 duels, along with seven recoveries, four clearances, three interceptions and two successful passes, but his status is up in the air for this one after being replaced late in the match by Florian Jungwirth when his head was bloodied from an accidental clash with teammate Ranko Veselinovic.
If Blackmon cannot go because of concussion protocol, then he will join numerous Vancouver players currently out of the lineup, including Caio Alexandre, who is still recovering from left foot, fifth metatarsal surgery, Erik Godoy has left calf tightness and Leonard Owusu could be a question mark with a right foot contusion.
The combination play between Ryan Gauld and Brian White was on full display a week ago as the two created their share of headaches for KC, while Thomas Hasal was there when called upon, stopping four shots for his second clean sheet of the campaign.
Bill Tuiloma scored his second goal of the season for the Timbers in their defeat against the Galaxy, putting him into a tie for the team lead with Yimmi Chara.
Tega Ikoba has abdominal issues, Felipe Mora continues to recover from his knee surgery, Diego Gutierrez is doubtful because of a foot injury, Zac McGraw is questionable due to an illness, while Pablo Bonilla will miss this match following his red card late in the first half last Sunday.
In that encounter, Sebastian Blanco earned his first start of the season, Dario Zuparic started for the 50th time in his MLS career and Diego Chara made a little history, though not necessarily for the right reasons, as he committed two fouls in their previous encounter, moving him into a tie with former Real Salt Lake midfielder Kyle Beckerman for the most ever in MLS (756).
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Hasal; Gutierrez, Veselinovic, Nerwinski; Brown, Teibert, Dajome, Raposo; Gauld; Caicedo, White
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Ivacic; Rasmussen, Mabiala, Zuparic, Bravo; Y. Chara, Paredes, D. Chara, Williamson; Blanco, Asprilla
We say: Vancouver Whitecaps 2-1 Portland Timbers
There is something about BC Place that seems to bring out the best in these Whitecaps, who have used that turf to their advantage.
We anticipate they will be able to expose a side in Portland who have struggled to close down the opposition's space in the final third, conceding 14 efforts on target and five goals in two road encounters this season.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vancouver Whitecaps win with a probability of 50.64%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 23.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vancouver Whitecaps win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.09%), while for a Portland Timbers win it was 0-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
