The Vancouver Whitecaps can pick up their first win of the Major League Soccer campaign when they take on Sporting Kansas City this Saturday at BC Place Stadium.
After four matches played, the Caps are bottom of the Western Conference table with just a single point, while SKC have yet to win on the road this year, coming away empty-handed on three occasions.
Match preview
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As the lone Canadian team to make the postseason in 2021, the Whitecaps came into this campaign with high hopes that they would be able to contend for top spot in the Western Conference, following their resurgence when Vanni Sartini became the new coach.
The honeymoon period is over for the Italian boss, who has a lot of work to do to transform the fortunes of his side, who are in desperate need of a spark, with a number of their star attacking players performing well below their best.
At his press conference on Wednesday, Sartini talked about his team needing to make smarter choices in the final third, and statistically speaking, we have not seen them do that enough, with only five shots on target to date this season, the fewest in MLS.
They have already conceded nine goals, which is tied with the San Jose Earthquakes for the most in the Western Conference, and Vancouver tend to struggle when falling behind, dropping six points from losing positions so far, a league-high.
Vancouver were able to change their fortunes a year ago thanks in part to their form at BC Place, and with consecutive games to come on their home turf, this is an opportunity for them to regain some momentum in a place where they have only suffered one defeat in their last 10 games.
While they are in a position many had not anticipated before the regular season began, the Caps are in a similar spot from a year ago at this stage of the competition, so the players can take that into account and know that there is still time to turn things around.
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A week ago, we again saw how valuable the forward line is for Kansas City, who were able to squeak past Real Salt Lake with a late goal to win 1-0.
We rarely see Peter Vermes and his players panic, which makes sense when you have been around this league as long as they have and are usually battling for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Since 2018, KC have had the Whitecaps' number, winning six of their nine fixtures against them in all competitions, suffering only one defeat and outscoring Vancouver 24-6 over that stretch.
They have been strong defensively at home, collecting two clean sheets, which the Wizards hope will serve as a good omen, as the last time this team accomplished that feat in their first two home encounters was in 2013 when they won the MLS Cup.
Sporting are second in MLS when it comes to possessions won in the attacking third (35) and third in terms of successful passes per match at that end of the field (109).
More often than not, Vermes has seen his side with the bulk of the possession, though they have rarely been able to make that key pass to create a clear-cut scoring opportunity.
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Team News
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Whitecaps defender Ranko Veselinovic is third in MLS in clearances so far this year (30) and seventh in interceptions (11), while goalkeeper Thomas Hasal has played well in his first season as the starter making 15 stops, good for third in the league.
Caio Alexandre remains out after undergoing left foot fifth metatarsal surgery, and Erik Godoy is likely to miss this game due to left calf tightness.
Brian White could be out with tightness in his right calf, and Ryan Gauld is questionable with a right adductor strain.
Sartini inserted four new players into the starting 11 versus Los Angeles FC, with Jake Nerwinski, Javain Brown, Sebastian Berhalter and Marcus Godinho coming in, while Florian Jungwirth, Leonard Owusu, Cristian Gutierrez and Ryan Gauld were on the bench.
Johnny Russell scored the winner for KC in their victory over RSL, the 400th in the history of this franchise in all competitions, while Roger Espinoza made his 300th start for the team and Tim Melia picked up his 200th cap for Sporting, becoming the 10th player to reach that milestone.
Remi Walter leads the MLS in recoveries (54), along with distance covered (35.7 miles), and Andreu Fontas is first in the league in passes (407), successful passes (360) and touches (467).
Kansas City will have to soldier on without the services of Gadi Kinda or Alan Pulido, who are not expected back this season after both undergoing knee surgery.
Jose Mauri might not be available once again, and the status of Uri Rosell remains up in the air because of a hamstring strain.
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Hasal; Jungwirth, Veselinovic, Blackmon; Caicedo, Owusu, Teibert, Godinho; Dajome, Vite; Raposo
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Zusi, Isimat-Mirin, Fontas, Pierre; Espinoza, Walter, Duke; Russell, Vujnovic, Salloi
We say: Vancouver Whitecaps 1-1 Sporting Kansas City
The Caps and KC have underachieved so far, and both could be without some key additions who are real difference-makers in the attack.
That turf at BC Place has proven to be a nightmare for opposing teams, and despite the success that the Wizards have had through the years against Vancouver, a draw seems like a reasonable projection given the struggles of these sides.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vancouver Whitecaps win with a probability of 43.88%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 29.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vancouver Whitecaps win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 0-1 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Vancouver Whitecaps in this match.
