Valencia will look to put their league troubles behind them when they welcome Cadiz to the Estadio de Mestalla on Wednesday evening for a Copa del Rey quarter-final clash.
The hosts are enduring another disappointing La Liga campaign, currently sat in midtable, whilst their upcoming opponents have things even worse and are struggling down in the relegation zone.
Match preview
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Valencia finished 13th in Spain's top flight last season - their worst campaign since claiming 14th in 1987-88 - which brought about the end of Voro's time in charge.
Whilst there have been signs of improvement under new boss Pepe Bordalas this season, Los Che are now winless in their last four league games which has seen them slip down to 10th in the table.
A run to the quarter-finals of the cup could be seen as a positive to focus on, but they also made very hard work of their progression through the early rounds.
Bordalas's men required extra time to knock out fourth-tier Arenteiro in the second round, a stoppage-time winner to beat Segunda Division Cartagena in the third round, and then scraped past third-tier Atletico Baleares 1-0 in the round of 16 thanks to a Marcos Andre goal in the opening minute.
Now facing a top-flight side for the first time in the tournament, they will likely have to raise their game to reach the final four for the first time since lifting the trophy during the 2018-19 campaign.
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Their upcoming top-flight opponents have problems of their own, however.
Cadiz finally earned promotion back to La Liga in the summer of 2020, after a 14-year exile, and secured a solid mid-table finish in their first campaign.
The wheels have fallen off this season, though, and a seven game winless run saw manager Alvaro Cervera dismissed at the start of the year, with the club sitting four points from safety.
A change in manager appears to have had the desired effect, with two wins and a draw in the three games since, one of which was a penalty shootout victory over Sporting Gijon in the last round of the cup.
That result followed successive 1-0 victories over lower-league teams in the previous rounds and, similarly to their opponents, Los Piratas will probably need to find a new gear if they are to knock out one of the giants of Spanish football and book a place in their first Copa del Rey semi-final in decades.
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Team News
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Valencia's Maxi Gomez and Daniel Wass should now both be available again after missing matches through COVID-19, and Jose Gaya will return after serving a one-match suspension for his red card against Sevilla.
Gabriel Paulista and Jasper Cillessen will miss out through muscle injuries, however.
Ilaix Moriba and Eray Comert have joined the club during the January transfer window but are unlikely to break immediately into the starting XI.
Cadiz have seen players going in the opposite direction, with Alvaro Jimenez joining UD Ibiza on loan for the remainder of the season and Jon Ander Garrido heading to Mirandes.
Jose Mari and Alberto Perea remain in the treatment room, as does defender Fali who will be out until mid-February.
Valencia possible starting lineup:
Domenech; Correia, Diakhaby, Alderete, Gaya; Foulquier, Wass, Guillamon, Musah; Gomez, Guedes
Cadiz possible starting lineup:
Ledesma; Carcelen, Haroyan, Chust, Espino; Salvi, Alex, Fede, Alejo; Negredo, Sobrino
We say: Valencia 3-2 Cadiz
Cadiz have potentially turned a corner in recent weeks and we can see them putting up a good fight here in what would be a major achievement if they can reach the final four. However, Valencia will see the return of some important names and should have enough to edge what is likely to be an entertaining game.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 43.23%. A win for Cadiz had a probability of 30.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Cadiz win was 0-1 (8.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Valencia would win this match.
