Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 46.91%. A win for USA had a probability of 29.17% and a draw had a probability of 23.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.69%) and 0-2 (7.25%). The likeliest USA win was 2-1 (6.93%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.