/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fusalog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fmexlog.png)
-
Christian Pulisic
37'
-
Christian Pulisic
46'
-
Ricardo Pepi
78'
USA vs Mexico - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F16%2Fusa.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 39.32%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Mexico win was 0-1 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that USA would win this match.
Result
USA
39.32%
▲
(+0.55)
Draw
28.83%
▲
(+0.35)
Mexico
31.85%
▼
(-0.90)
Both Teams to Score:
44.88%
▼
(-1.18)
Goals
Over 2.5
38.4%
▼
(-1.35)
Under 2.5
61.6%
▲
(+1.34)
Over 3.5
18.56%
▼
(-1.01)
Under 3.5
81.44%
▲
(+1.01)
Over 4.5
7.52%
▼
(-0.58)
Under 4.5
92.48%
▲
(+0.57)
USA Goals
Over 0.5
69.49%
▼
(-0.36)
Under 0.5
30.51%
▲
(+0.35)
Over 1.5
33.27%
▼
(-0.42)
Under 1.5
66.73%
▲
(+0.41)
Mexico Goals
Over 0.5
64.58%
▼
(-1.36)
Under 0.5
35.41%
▲
(+1.36)
Over 1.5
27.82%
▼
(-1.44)
Under 1.5
72.18%
▲
(+1.43)
Score analysis
USA
39.31%
Draw
28.82%
Mexico
31.85%
USA
1-0
@
12.82%
▲
(+0.51)
2-1 @ 7.9% ▼ (-0.05)
2-0 @ 7.61% ▲ (+0.24)
3-1 @ 3.13% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 3.01% ▲ (+0.07)
3-2 @ 1.62% ▼ (-0.09)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 39.31%
2-1 @ 7.9% ▼ (-0.05)
2-0 @ 7.61% ▲ (+0.24)
3-1 @ 3.13% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 3.01% ▲ (+0.07)
3-2 @ 1.62% ▼ (-0.09)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 39.31%
Draw
1-1
@
13.31%
▲
(+0.06)
0-0 @ 10.8% ▲ (+0.54)
2-2 @ 4.1% ▼ (-0.18)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 28.82%
0-0 @ 10.8% ▲ (+0.54)
2-2 @ 4.1% ▼ (-0.18)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 28.82%
Mexico
0-1
@
11.21%
▲
(+0.16)
1-2 @ 6.91% ▼ (-0.24)
0-2 @ 5.82% ▼ (-0.14)
1-3 @ 2.39% ▼ (-0.18)
0-3 @ 2.01% ▼ (-0.13)
2-3 @ 1.42% ▼ (-0.12)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 31.85%
1-2 @ 6.91% ▼ (-0.24)
0-2 @ 5.82% ▼ (-0.14)
1-3 @ 2.39% ▼ (-0.18)
0-3 @ 2.01% ▼ (-0.13)
2-3 @ 1.42% ▼ (-0.12)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 31.85%
