Two of the Bundesliga's European hopefuls go head to head on Saturday, when Union Berlin host Wolfsburg at the An der Alten Forsterei.
The hosts will look to continue their incredible unbeaten run at home and overtake their opponents this weekend, whilst the visitors will be looking to bounce back after a dip in form prior to the international break.
Match preview
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Union currently boast one of the best home records across European football as it stands, with the four league matches unbeaten on home soil so far this season extending their unbeaten streak to 20 Bundesliga matches, which stretches back to the opening weekend defeat to Augsburg in the 2020-21 campaign.
Manager Urs Fischer continues to work wonders at the Berlin side, leading them into the top flight of Germany in 2018-19, before achieving 11th- and seventh-placed finishes on their return, which earned them a spot in the debut season of the Europa Conference League for this year.
Continuing on with their solid defensive structure, Die Eisernen remain difficult to break down in every match first and foremost, conceding nine in their opening seven matches so far, although four of these arrived in a defeat at the hands of title hopefuls Borussia Dortmund.
Despite juggling with the demands of European competition this season as well, the defeat to BVB is the only loss they have tasted in the league so far, which has left Union sitting in a healthy position of seventh heading into the weekend.
Prior to the international break, and bouncing back from that sole defeat, Union recorded three straight victories, with two of these arriving in league action.
The most recent was a come-from-behind win away to a strong Mainz 05 side, with two second-half goals in the space of five minutes from Taiwo Awoniyi proving to be the difference, which took the Nigerian's tally to an impressive five already this campaign.
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Meanwhile, after initially starting the new Bundesliga season with a 100% record from the opening four matchdays, visitors Wolfsburg have hit a small blip in recent weeks.
A draw, followed by back-to-back defeats against Hoffenheim and Borussia Monchengladbach, mean the Wolves have fallen to fifth in the table heading into Saturday's trip and mean there is plenty for new manager Mark van Bommel to ponder.
Factoring in the Champions League fixtures as well, it is in fact five games without a win and just four goals scored during this time for the Dutchman's side.
Those following Wolfsburg's progress closely will not be too surprised by the recent downturn in results, however, with results certainly flattering them in the early stages of the campaign.
Performances have been far from perfect despite the early successes, as focus on defensive solidarity has come at the expense of attacking flair and threat in the final third of the pitch.
As a result, van Bommel's side were achieving victories in matches where they were second best for large periods, with the poor performances now catching up on them in recent weeks.
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Team News
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Union have a near fully-fit squad available to choose from on Saturday, with just the two players doubtful for the visit of Wolfsburg.
Centre-back Timo Baumgartl remains a doubt due to the concussion he suffered in the win against Arminia Bielefeld in September, although he has at least returned to training this week.
Paul Jaeckel will continue to deputise should he remain absent, whilst the versatile Pawel Wszolek remains a slight doubt with a foot injury that has delayed his debut for the club, although he did manage to play the full 90 minutes in a friendly during the international break.
As for Wolfsburg, they will be missing first-choice centre-back Maxence Lacroix on Saturday, with the Frenchman serving a one-match suspension for his red card against Monchengladbach last time out.
Bartosz Bialek, Paulo Otavio, Xaver Schlager and William remain unavailable due to long-term injuries, with Yannick Gerhardt recently joining them on the sidelines too.
Midfielder Admir Mehmedi has been limited to just eight minutes of league action this season so far, and he remains a doubt due to a muscular problem.
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Jaeckel, Knoche, Friedrich; Ryerson, Promel, Khedira, Giesselmann; Haraguchi; Awoniyi, Kruse
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Mbabu, Brooks, Bornauw, Roussillon; Guilavogui, Arnold; Baku, Philipp, Waldschmidt; Weghorst
We say: Union Berlin 1-1 Wolfsburg
With two stubborn defences on show on Saturday, it is hard to see many goals arriving in this game, particularly with very little to choose between the sides.
Because of that, we are predicting a tight 1-1 draw, although Union could quite easily grind out a narrow victory on their dominant home patch.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 36.78%. A win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 36.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Wolfsburg win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
