Seeking to pick up a fifth Primeira Liga victory on the bounce, Sporting Lisbon take a trip to the Estadio Joao Cardoso to lock horns with Tondela on Saturday.
The hosts head into the game fresh off the back of ending their run of seven league games without a win and will look to build on that result as they make a late push from the drop zone.
Match preview
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Tondela turned in a performance of the highest quality last Sunday when they stormed to a 3-1 victory against Maritimo at the Estadio do Maritimo.
An own goal from Marcelo Alves and Salvador Agra's 12th-minute strike saw the first half finish level, before Rafael Barbosa and Tiago Dantas scored in the final minutes of the game to condemn the hosts to their second loss in three games.
Prior to that, Nuno Campos's side were on a seven-game winless run in the league, picking up two draws and suffering five defeats — including a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of title-chasing Porto on March 13.
With 25 points from 28 games, the CTD Auriverdes are currently 16th in the Primeira Liga standings, four points above 17th-placed Belenenses and one adrift of Arouca just outside the relegation zone.
While Tondela will look to leapfrog the Arouquenses, standing in their way is an opposing side who are unbeaten in 11 of the last 13 meetings between the teams and have won the last four since 2019.
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Sporting Lisbon, on the other hand, continue to chase down Porto at the top of the table as they eased to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pacos de Ferreira at the Estadio Jose Alvalade last time out.
Pablo Sarabia delivered the goods once again as he opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 20th minute before Nuno Santos doubled the lead in the 72nd minute to deny the visitors a third straight victory.
Ruben Amorim's men have now won each of their most recent four Primeira Liga outings, scoring nine goals and conceding once in that time, while they have avoided defeat in their last nine since losing 2-1 against Braga on January 22.
With 70 points from 28 games, Sporting Lisbon are currently second in the league standings, six points off league leaders Porto and nine above third-placed Benfica.
The defending champions will feel confident of coming away with the desired results this weekend as they face a floundering Tondela side who have failed to win any of their last five home games, managing just two points from the last 15 available.
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Team News
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Campos will be unable to call upon the services of 23-year-old midfielder Simone Muratore, who has been out of action since last October through injury.
He is joined on the CDT Auriverdes' injury table by Portuguese defender Jota Goncalves, who picked up an injury last September.
Barbosa opened his account for Tondela with his strike against Maritimo and the 26-year-old midfielder should retain his place in the starting lineup.
Meanwhile, Sporting Lisbon will be without the services of Santos, who will miss the game through a disciplinary suspension from the Disciplinary Council of the Portuguese Football Federation.
Other than that, the reigning champions head into the weekend with a full strength squad and we expect Amorim to name his strongest possible XI.
With his strike against Pacos de Ferreira last time out, Sarabia now has nine goals and six assists to his name in the Primeira Liga and the Spanish forward will be looking to enter double digits in goals this weekend.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Manu, Alves, Sagnam; Borges, Augusto, Undabarrena, Bebeto; Barbosa, Agra, Dadasov
Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Adan; Inacio, Coates, Feddal; Porro, Nunes, Ugarte, Reis; Goncalves, Paulinho, Sarabia
We say: Tondela 0-2 Sporting Lisbon
Saturday's game sees two sides at opposite ends of the table go head to head with Sporting Lisbon being the clearly superior side. While Tondela will look to build on their win over Maritimo, they face the Leoes, who have won each of their last four encounters. Looking at the gulf in quality and experience between the two sides, and their contrasting form, we are backing Sporting Lisbon to come away with all three points unscathed.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 61.11%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 18.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.74%) and 0-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a Tondela win it was 2-1 (4.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
