Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Switzerland win with a probability of 74.99%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Switzerland win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.94%) and 3-0 (10.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.61%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (3.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Switzerland would win this match.