Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 40.4%. A win for Luzern had a probability of 36.17% and a draw had a probability of 23.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.69%) and 0-2 (6.11%). The likeliest Luzern win was 2-1 (7.83%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%).