Champions League
Jul 21, 2026 7.30pm
4
0
HT : 1 0
FT Merkur Arena
  • Jon Gorenc Stankovic 4' goal
  • Jeyland Mitchell 50' goal
  • Luca Weinhandl 53' goal
  • Jon Gorenc Stankovic 56' yellowcard
  • Jürgen Heil 59' goal
  • yellowcard Oisin McEntee 47'
  • yellowcard Amadou Ba-Sy 86'

Sturm Graz vs Hearts - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Sturm Graz

All competitions

Hearts

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sturm Graz win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Hearts had a probability of 35.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sturm Graz win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Hearts win was 0-1 (8.05%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%).

Result

Sturm Graz 39.6% (+0.04)
Draw 24.63%
Hearts 35.77% (-0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.37%

Goals

Over 1.5 76.69% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 23.31% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 53.4%
Under 2.5 46.57% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 31.08%
Under 3.5 68.92%
Over 4.5 18.1% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 81.9% (-0.01)

First Half Winner

Sturm Graz 28.35% (+0.02)
Draw 40.01% (+0.01)
Hearts 31.64% (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Sturm Graz 44.94%
No Goal 6.43%
Hearts 48.63%

Corners

Over 8 61.48% (+0.02)
Equal 8 10.72%
Under 8 27.8% (-0.02)
Over 9 50.24% (+0.03)
Equal 9 11.24%
Under 9 38.52% (-0.02)
Over 10.5 39.4% (+0.02)
Under 10.5 60.6% (-0.02)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 1.5 40.18% (+0.03)
Under 1.5 59.82% (-0.03)
Over 2.5 17.34%
Under 2.5 82.66%
Over 3.5 6.1% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 93.9% (-0.01)

Hearts Goals

Over 0.5 69.17% (-0.02)
Under 0.5 30.83% (+0.01)
Over 1.5 37.21% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 62.79% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 15.69%
Under 2.5 84.31%
Over 3.5 5.62%
Under 3.5 94.38%

Score analysis

Sturm Graz 39.6%
Draw 24.62%
Hearts 35.78%
Sturm Graz
1-0 @ 8.83% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 8.51%
2-0 @ 6.39% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 4.04%
3-0 @ 3.24%
3-2 @ 2.65%
Other @ 5.94% (+0.02)
Total : 39.6%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.36%
0-0 @ 6.43%
2-2 @ 5.36%
3-3 @ 1.31% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.62%
Hearts
0-1 @ 8.05%
1-2 @ 7.97% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 5.54%
1-3 @ 3.58%
0-3 @ 2.6%
2-3 @ 2.58% (+0.02)
Other @ 5.46%
Total : 35.78%