Club Friendlies 3
Jul 15, 2026 4.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Merkur Arena
  • Axel Kayombo 90'+27' goal

Sturm Graz vs Pogon Szczecin - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 11, 2026 4.00pm
Sturm Graz 5 - 1 Hiroshima

Pogon Szczecin

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 8, 2026 10.30am
Szczecin 2 - 1 Chrobry Glogow

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sturm Graz win with a probability of 58.78%. A draw had a probability of 21.12% and a win for Pogon Szczecin had a probability of 20.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sturm Graz win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.6%) , while for a Pogon Szczecin win it was 1-2 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.

Result

Sturm Graz 58.78% (+0.36)
Draw 21.12% (-0.17)
Pogon Szczecin 20.1% (-0.19)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.43% (+0.12)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.2% (+0.13)
Under 1.5 18.8% (-0.13)
Over 2.5 60.9% (+0.20)
Under 2.5 39.1% (-0.20)
Over 3.5 39.04% (+0.20)
Under 3.5 60.96% (-0.20)
Over 4.5 25.32% (+0.20)
Under 4.5 74.68% (-0.20)

First Half Winner

Sturm Graz 40.45% (+0.06)
Draw 38.56% (-0.12)
Pogon Szczecin 21% (+0.08)

Team To Score First

Sturm Graz 59.69% (+0.22)
No Goal 4.88% (-0.07)
Pogon Szczecin 35.43% (-0.15)

Corners

Over 8 63.64% (+0.11)
Equal 8 10.68% (+0.02)
Under 8 25.68% (-0.13)
Over 9 52.24% (+0.09)
Equal 9 11.4% (+0.05)
Under 9 36.36% (-0.11)
Over 10.5 41.08% (+0.04)
Under 10.5 58.92% (-0.04)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 1.5 58.16% (+0.32)
Under 1.5 41.84% (-0.32)
Over 2.5 33.2% (+0.31)
Under 2.5 66.8% (-0.30)
Over 3.5 15.97% (+0.16)
Under 3.5 84.03% (-0.16)

Pogon Szczecin Goals

Over 0.5 56.61% (-0.18)
Under 0.5 43.39% (+0.18)
Over 1.5 25.77% (-0.09)
Under 1.5 74.23% (+0.08)
Over 2.5 8.91% (-0.09)
Under 2.5 91.09% (+0.10)
Over 3.5 2.68% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 97.32% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Sturm Graz 58.79%
Draw 21.12%
Pogon Szczecin 20.1%
Sturm Graz
2-1 @ 9.67% (+0.01)
1-0 @ 9.14% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 8.28% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 6.78% (+0.05)
3-0 @ 5.39% (+0.05)
3-2 @ 3.82% (+0.07)
Other @ 15.71% (+0.18)
Total : 58.79%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.6% (-0.09)
2-2 @ 5.14%
0-0 @ 4.88% (-0.07)
3-3 @ 1.24%
Other @ 0.26% (-0.03)
Total : 21.12%
Pogon Szczecin
1-2 @ 5.49% (-0.03)
0-1 @ 4.79% (-0.06)
0-2 @ 2.41% (-0.03)
2-3 @ 1.87% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 1.82% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 1.3% (-0.04)
Other @ 2.42%
Total : 20.1%