/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fspalog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F21%2F12%2Fserlog.png)
-
Aymeric Laporte
5'
-
Mikel Oyarzabal
7'
-
Alvaro Morata
65'
-
Alex Baena
77'
-
Strahinja Erakovic
38'
-
Aleksandar Mitrovic
53'
-
Nikola Milenkovic
54'
-
Strahinja Pavlovic
76'
-
Luka Jovic
90'+1'
Spain vs Serbia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Result
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F42%2Faymeric-laporte_1.jpg)
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F41%2Fluis-de-la-fuente_1.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F39%2Fnico-williams-lamine-yamal.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 58.45%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Serbia had a probability of 18.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for a Serbia win it was 0-1 (6.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
Result
Spain
58.45%
▲
(+0.16)
Draw
23.48%
▼
(-0.01)
Serbia
18.07%
▼
(-0.16)
Both Teams to Score:
47.08%
▼
(-0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5
47.75%
▼
(-0.18)
Under 2.5
52.25%
▲
(+0.18)
Over 3.5
26.05%
▼
(-0.16)
Under 3.5
73.95%
▲
(+0.16)
Over 4.5
12.03%
▼
(-0.11)
Under 4.5
87.97%
▲
(+0.11)
Spain Goals
Over 0.5
82.38%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 0.5
17.62%
▲
(+0.01)
Over 1.5
51.79%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 1.5
48.21%
▲
(+0.02)
Serbia Goals
Over 0.5
57.15%
▼
(-0.29)
Under 0.5
42.84%
▲
(+0.29)
Over 1.5
20.84%
▼
(-0.25)
Under 1.5
79.16%
▲
(+0.24)
Score analysis
Spain
58.44%
Draw
23.47%
Serbia
18.07%
Spain
1-0
@
13.1%
▲
(+0.09)
2-0 @ 11.37% ▲ (+0.07)
2-1 @ 9.64% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 6.59% ▲ (+0.05)
3-1 @ 5.58% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 2.86% ▲ (+0.02)
4-1 @ 2.42% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.37% ▼ (-0.03)
4-2 @ 1.03% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.48%
Total : 58.44%
2-0 @ 11.37% ▲ (+0.07)
2-1 @ 9.64% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 6.59% ▲ (+0.05)
3-1 @ 5.58% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 2.86% ▲ (+0.02)
4-1 @ 2.42% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.37% ▼ (-0.03)
4-2 @ 1.03% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.48%
Total : 58.44%
Draw
1-1
@
11.1%
▼
(-0.01)
0-0 @ 7.55% ▲ (+0.06)
2-2 @ 4.09% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 23.47%
0-0 @ 7.55% ▲ (+0.06)
2-2 @ 4.09% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 23.47%
Serbia
0-1
@
6.4%
▼
(-0.01)
1-2 @ 4.71% ▼ (-0.05)
0-2 @ 2.71% ▼ (-0.03)
1-3 @ 1.33% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 1.16% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 18.07%
1-2 @ 4.71% ▼ (-0.05)
0-2 @ 2.71% ▼ (-0.03)
1-3 @ 1.33% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 1.16% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 18.07%