Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 56.15%. A draw had a probability of 26.41% and a win for Juve Stabia had a probability of 17.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.91%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%) , while for a Juve Stabia win it was 0-1 (7.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.