Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 57.1%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Lecco had a probability of 18.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.25%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%), while for a Lecco win it was 0-1 (6.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bari would win this match.