Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 43.74%. A win for Lecco had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (8.45%). The likeliest Lecco win was 1-0 (9.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pisa would win this match.