Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ascoli win with a probability of 40.64%. A win for Bari had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ascoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.01%) and 2-1 (7.98%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.