Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 57.27%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 20.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.91%) and 0-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.62%), while for a Salernitana win it was 1-0 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.