Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 42.37%. A win for Monza had a probability of 33.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.91%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest Monza win was 2-1 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.