Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 41.2%. A win for Parma had a probability of 32.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.