Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 37.48%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 35.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Lecce win was 1-0 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.