Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 44.27%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 30.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.11%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.