Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 40.07%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Almeria win was 0-1 (8.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.