Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 49.14%. A draw had a probability of 27.42% and a win for Burgos had a probability of 23.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%) , while for a Burgos win it was 0-1 (8.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.