Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 45.25%. A win for Real Zaragoza had a probability of 28.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Real Zaragoza win was 0-1 (8.41%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.