Segunda Division Gameweek 21
Jan 11, 2026 3.15pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
LIVE Estadio La Rosaleda
  • Carlos Ruiz Rubio 43' yellowcard
  • Carlos Ruiz Rubio 45'+1' goal
  • Aaron Ochoa Moloney 65' yellowcard
  • 65' yellowcard
  • goal Kuki Zalazar 3'
  • yellowcard Yann Bodiger 26'
  • yellowcard Marc Domenech 65'
  • yellowcard 65'
  • yellowcard Salvi 65'
  • yellowcard Aboubacar Bassinga 66'

Malaga vs Ceuta - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Malaga

All competitions
Segunda Division
Last game
Jan 4, 2026 1.00pm
Sporting Gijon 0 - 0 Malaga
Goals scored
28
Top scorer
Carlos Ruiz Rubio

Ceuta

All competitions
Segunda Division
Last game
Jan 4, 2026 3.15pm
Ceuta 0 - 0 FC Andorra
Goals scored
20
Top scorer
Jose Matos

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 49.08%. A draw had a probability of 28.48% and a win for Ceuta had a probability of 22.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.77%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%) , while for a Ceuta win it was 0-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.

Result

Malaga 49.08%
Draw 28.48%
Ceuta 22.47%

Both Teams to Score: 

43.97%

Goals

Over 1.5 65.24%
Under 1.5 34.76%
Over 2.5 39.06%
Under 2.5 60.94%
Over 3.5 19.1%
Under 3.5 80.9%
Over 4.5 9.7%
Under 4.5 90.3%

First Half Winner

Malaga 28.94%
Draw 50.58%
Ceuta 20.47%

Team To Score First

Malaga 50.9%
No Goal 10.97%
Ceuta 38.13%

Corners

Over 8 46.86%
Equal 8 12.44%
Under 8 40.7%
Over 9 35.22%
Equal 9 11.64%
Under 9 53.14%
Over 10.5 25.25%
Under 10.5 74.75%

Malaga Goals

Over 1.5 39.86%
Under 1.5 60.14%
Over 2.5 16.14%
Under 2.5 83.86%
Over 3.5 4.96%
Under 3.5 95.04%

Ceuta Goals

Over 0.5 55.11%
Under 0.5 44.89%
Over 1.5 19.98%
Under 1.5 80.02%
Over 2.5 5.22%
Under 2.5 94.78%
Over 3.5 1.1%
Under 3.5 98.9%

Score analysis

Malaga 49.07%
Draw 28.48%
Ceuta 22.49%
Malaga
1-0 @ 14.78%
2-0 @ 9.77%
2-1 @ 9.01%
3-0 @ 4.49%
3-1 @ 4.07%
3-2 @ 2.03%
Other @ 4.92%
Total : 49.07%
Draw
1-1 @ 13%
0-0 @ 10.97%
2-2 @ 3.88%
Other @ 0.04%
Total : 28.48%
Ceuta
0-1 @ 9.05%
1-2 @ 5.45%
0-2 @ 3.4%
1-3 @ 1.46%
2-3 @ 1.06%
0-3 @ 1.01%
Other @ 1.06%
Total : 22.49%