Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 49.08%. A draw had a probability of 28.48% and a win for Ceuta had a probability of 22.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.77%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%) , while for a Ceuta win it was 0-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.