Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Granada win with a probability of 52.55%. A win for Castellon had a probability of 23.84% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Granada win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Castellon win was 0-1 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Granada would win this match.